Dear friends, no Sai bhajan till now, no trade updates, no comments. U must all be thinking,whats wrong with rochak. Nothing serious, friends, its just that, i am still under shock. Vishal retail is a big setback for me. But, then u know, markets are always known for doing the unexpected. ( 47 was never expected2b broken ).
SAI CHAMATKAR ( HORSE RIDER ) OF THIS WEEK
Hello friends !
Who doesnt wanna get rich.
& then who doesnt wanna get rick quickly.
& this fact is not under even a % of a doubt that MONEY FETCHES MONEY.
& this money is a big power if used wisely & smartly.
But, at the same time, if not used properly can be devastated quickly also.
Stock market has always been fancied as a place that is believed to make rich quickly & this is actually possible. offcourse, with whole lot of experience, discipline & proper money management.
MONEY MANAGEMENT & POSITION SIZING IS AN IMPORTANT ASPECT of trading in stock market.
First of all, u must always know the exact time frame, for which the funds, u r gonna use for trading, is available to you. & then u shud plan ur trades accordingly.
I have been always believed, that longer the time period is, higher the gains are. U shud first, divide ur capital as per ur requirement.
Suppose a fund of 5 lacs is available spare to you for trading. U shud always know, how much funds out of this 5 lacs, is available to you upto a certain time period.
So, now then, the money which is not required to you for next 3-5 years, shud be kept secured, in order to be used, until u identify urslf a long term bet. Suppose, u dont need 2 lacs out of this 5 lacs for the next 3 years at least. So, u shud keep these 2 lacs apart from the rest of 3 lacs, till u find an appropriate scrip in which these funds can be invested.
NOw, what about the rest 3 lacs ? Well, this amount shud always know its goal. What u wanna do from this fund ? As per as my opinion is concerned, since i believe in longer term returns, i wud keep at least 50 % of the amount for positional trades, i.e. trades which are identified to be initiated for next 6-9 months. so, 1.5 lacs are kept for medium term trades. Now, the rest 1.5 lacs is the amount, which is available to you for ur short term/swing/day/nifty OR any type of trading. Since, the 2 parts of the funds u have kept by you are for medium to long term, u can risk the 3 rd part of fund for trading purpose, b coz, the investment u made, wud actually make u comfortable to suffer some losses, if any, while trading for short term/day trading.
I do not favour day trading. Day trading is the fastest devastation which can happen to your capital. Well, while trading, u shud actually know what for are u in. Trading is a huge ocean. Ur capital is not even a single drop out in this ocean. So, with the limited capital u have, u can not experiment with all aspects of trading, i.e. day/swing/nifty/option/arbitrage/hedge/ etc etc.
U MUST ALL FIRST GO THRU THE FOLLOWING ARTICLE I WROTE SOMETIMES AGO WITH THIS REGARDS----
http://stock2gains.blogspot.com/2010/06/what-is-your-trader-type.html
Well, after having decided, what actually ur goal is, at least 60 % of ur residue capital, i believe shud be kept secured, to back up the 40 % capital u have decided to put into aspect u chosen to trade. B coz, i have seen several traders converted into martyrs on the front of mark to market ( MTM ).
So, that means, 90000 Rs. is to be kept secure to back up 60000 rs. trade. Now, this 90000 rs. hasnt to be kept totally idle. This 90000 rs. can always b used confidentally in case indices are over sold OR over bought. Else, keep this amount idle.
Leverage has always to be avoided. Leverage is the best lollypop, smart & disciplined trades hav used successfully to attract wanna be rich quickly, new bie traders. Well, this 90000 rs. is kept secured only to cover up, in case u have used leverage with the 60000 rs. capital u are supposed to use. SO, in any case, ur trades shud not exceed 1,50000 rs. limit.
NOw comes the position sizing.
Well, all ur bets shud be equally poised. So that means, if have kept x amount secured for trading, ur bets shud be either x/2,x/3,x/4,x/5,x/6 in proposition. I have never believed that one shud hold more than 4 positions at at given point of time. So, let us divide our capital by 4. So, ur single trade shud always be 15000 rs. amount. So, if u r trading in reliance, u wud trade in 15 no. of shares, & if its in rnrl it shud be 375.
Now, stop loss is what, one shud decide himself, that how much he is willing/ready to loose per trade, if the trade goes wrong. NO GAIN WITHOUT PAIN. This depends entirely on ones risk appetite. Ideally, it shudnt be more than 2 %. So, if u willing to loose 2 % on entire trade amount, i.e. means, u can afford to loose upto 300 rs. on a single trade. that means, u shud place SL 300/15=20rs. IN case of a reliance & 300/375= .80 re or 80 paisa in case of RNRL. SO, a SL shud be kept @ 1000-20=980 in case of reliance & 40-.80=39.2 in case of RNRL.
What does this mean, we shud always keep a SL under 20 rs. in reliance & .8 paisa in RNRL , whenever we take a trade. YA, but many a times, when trade is not initiated @ appropriate levels, the chances of ur Sl hitting are higher. So, ideally, after being provided with a SL/Identified a SL, for a trade, u shud wait patiently to scrip to come closer to ur SL, to initiate a trade. i.e. in case of reliance, if SL given/provided is 965, instead of jumping immediately into the trades, u shud wait patiently for reliance to come down to 985-983, before initiating a trade.
This is what money management & position sizing, has been from years, the trading has begun. SOme know, how to apply & some dont, & some know but dont apply. Well, 1 more thumb rule is to cut ur losses early & trail ur profit. B coz, its believed that 80 % of ur profit comes from 20 % of ur trades. That means, 8 out of ur trades are gonna hit the SL, but if money management, position sizing, SL, TSL & discipline is properly followed than ur 2 successful trades out the 10 trades taken are able enough to make up for the losses u have suffered in those 8 trades, if proper discipline is followed.
To know more about the importance of STOP LOSS & TRAILING STOP LOSS, please go through the following post
http://stock2gains.blogspot.com/2010/06/why-to-put-stop-loss.html
Well, i know this is quite a lengthy article, but, i have a descriptive nature & i cant help it. I hope, this article help somebody in developing a disciplined trading approach.
COuldnt get enough time to update the trades & trading table.
But sure, wud be able to update the trading table by tomorrow morning.
ALso, the monthly performance report for august month is pending. Not sure, when i am gonna prepare it. But, i suppose, it will take lot of time, may be, august & september month performance report wud be issued colletively.
HAPPY SAILING
OM SAI RAM.
56 comments:
KEI hits 37.8, now close to our tgt 2
Cranes soft hits 10 % upper circuit, more to come
VIshal retail - wonderful opportunity to buy
Tech mahindra - maintain a SL below 712, for quantity re entered. Keep maintaining the rest of the quantity, even if 712 hits.
Ispat industries - Booked fully above 24.8
R power - Turns more bullish above 163
WWIL - Buy generated
All cargo hits 170
REI AGRO - Try & exit , re enter above 22.4 agressively
SIR,
RNRL one week target please. It seems it has has entered bullish area. Will you please comment?
rpower where to book profit?
VVVVV
keep trailing r power, above 170 only
As per as rnrl is concern, i dont think, any bull run has started in rnrl, Its just adjusting itself position to indices, which are close to their all time highs, whereas its still @ a level of 15000 sensex.
ne ways, if u have taken a position in rnrl, its better to keep trailing ur profits with a TSL, b coz, any thing can happen in an euphoria, tthrough which we are going in
Square off, wwil immediately
WWIL, is to be re initiated, on a cross over of 14.8.
This view stands for today only. Else, wait for next intimation.
Tech mahindra - Keep trailing & place Sl of 715 for ur Re entered position. ALthough, please keep carrying quantity bought @ 638
Look to short sell renuka, above 83.4 & place SL above 84 for the same for ur 100 % quantity.
Cranes soft hits another 10 % upper circuit.
Square off vishal retail, quantity which was bought for trading purpose, although investment bet continues. Trading positions to be re initiated, if its breaks 52 on the upside. Although, this exercise, is for today only.
Renuka sugars hit 81
Ispat booked @ 25, came close to 22. Can re initiate 35 % of squared off quantity close to 22
infosys looking good for intraday... whats ur view?
Arpit
dear arpit
although, i neither like trading intraday myself, nor i recommend somebody to be involved into day trading, i appreciate, u have good eye for stocks.
yes, its looking good as long as its intraday low is protected.
as soon as it crosses, 3088, stop loss can be shifted below 3020
alright :)
thnx for ur views..
i hate intraday myself.. but hav to giv calls .. so have to hunt for them
Arpit
dear arpit
why do u have to give intraday calls ?
there is no boundation, u can insist & request the clients u have to please not induldge into intraday traders. After all, clients will always ask for intraday trades & quick money making trades, but, we hold responsibility towards their money, so we shall make them understand
i hope, u take this in right spirits.
thanks
haha well.. sir..
i understand this.. and so do the clients.. who are happy if i give a good positional call.
but my boss doesnt :D
so soon ill be out of this job.. and change to a newer one where atleast i can do what i want.
Arpit
arpit
boss is always right
Tech mahindra, 778. HOW Z THAT. I hope, visitors remembered. We booked partially @ 720 & then i asked to re enter, when it crosses 720, keeping 713 as SL for re entry. It kept bouncing from 714-718 band, & now its 778. A cool 8 % for re entry & 22 % for buy @ 638. Keep carrying with a Sl below 767 for quantity re entered. ( 2.20 pm, 22 nd sept. )
what price can I expect this month in RNRL?
i HAVE SOME OF RNRL WHICH I WISH TO DISPOSE OFF EARLY.
your wwil,
it gave a move atlast.. tho didnt buy it.. had it on radar...
good pick :)
Arpit
thanks arpit
good pick
& also notice that,
the remarks, i have written today early morning, in the trading table about WWIL
Dear vvvvv
for the time being, my views about rnrl are neutral
will revert back to you, if something clicks to me about that
for the meantime, i request u to please remind again about the same on the weekend.
thanks
Dear vvvvv
for the time being, my views about rnrl are neutral
will revert back to you, if something clicks to me about that
for the meantime, i request u to please remind again about the same on the weekend.
thanks
dear ksaibaba
if u had entered in eih
please book partial profits
188 to 212 is cool 12 % profits
u can enter booked quantity later , close to 198
( this is personal suggestion only, for the query raise individually, please dont take it as a general recommendation )
Book WWIL @ 15.25-15.3 ( over 75 % quantity ), if somebody missed to book it @ 15.8 ( tgt 1 mentioned in Trading table ). 3 % is not bad @ all. Place a re buy order @ 14.85 for 35 % of booked quantity & 14.55 for 35 % of booked quantity.
I am still repenting for not having bought cranes soft @ 5.7 & making a decision to wait, till it comes close to 5.5.
ALthough, i had advised one of my follower to buy @ 5.72. Low made was 5.71
GTL, Mastek bought.
Happy Sailing. Keep following proper stop losses.
Please do not re enter wwil
'
not looking good
favour a buying only above 16
or low risk trade, close to 14.5
SL below 14.1
XL TELE ROCKS
thnx 4 ur advice on asian paints .....according to ur level i worked on it....n today i bokked profit of rs. 3k or else i would had booked sum loss!
thanks for cranes & xltele trade.
Keep it up
I made profit
dear vvvvv & sunil
money was urs, risk was urs, just levels were mine.
so credit goes to u, that u took real risk with real money on my views mentioned & took decision to dare to act as per my levels.
happy sailing
they say that next immediate (short term) target of TCI FINANCE is 65.
Your comment, please
@vvvvv
not sure about 61
bt an immediate spurt ( 3 months time frame ), to 53-55 is not ruled out, till 36-35 remains safe.
YOUR ANALYSIS ON teledata tech solution PLEASE
@ vvvvv
teledata tech is a blind game
buy lil quantity & forget, like u lost some money, or dropped ur wallet
Dear Rochakji,
Please give your views on
1)ZEEL and
2)Moserbaer
wether buy signalled as per VPT with
stop loss.
Regards
Shyam.
@ shyam
zee - has made a good base around 280. So, remain very bullish till it doesnt break 280.
Although, i believe, it will take a lot of time for stock to break its recent high of 326 ( personal view ). So, its good, if u r a only playing for a lil gains of say 5-6 %.
buy below 287, SL 280. Sell around 309-312.
I believe, it will have to consolidate now for 3-4 months, to break its recent high of 326
BUt, there is an urgency to trade only in zee, then buy anything below 298, maintain till it doesnt break 294 & dispose, close to 312-314.
Stock is good for long term. Huge supports close to 250-260.
Moserbaer - Run up a lot in the short term. Is not a buy candidate . Huge huge resistance @ 74-76. Wait to Buy only close to 64-61, else avoid. Doesnt look like going above 76. Until, some newsflow comes in. So rewards only 3 rs., risk @ least 13 rs. Not a good risk reward ratio to initiate a trade.
Comparing zee & moserbaer. My personal choice, is zee below 287 OR more favourite, if comes close to 264-262 ( not looking like coming to this zone @ all ). Not @ all , looking like to break 252, in next 9-12 months.
tatamotor all set to give a move on the upside..
wot do u think... it looks intraday buy at cmp io85 :)
Arpit
dear arpit
sorry for late reply, i couldnt see ur comment, in time.
well, i dont like analyzing a stock on intraday basis, so cant really comment.
but, u have a good eye for stocks. i know, u can decide urslf.
THREE (read 100) CHEERS FOR VPT (read ROCHAKJI)
Your comment on resurgere mines, please
@ VVVVV
Resurgere mines, is a buy & hold for 6-9 months
though XL TELECOM is an investment bet, what will be its short term target?
@ vvvvv
Short term target of investment bet, are never meant for investors.
if u r done with ur profits & not an investor , then book & exit.
Sir
Pls tell me ur idea about Airtel and Reliance.I have long position in these counters.
Dear kousalya
Let me know ur positions please, then only it will be appropriate to suggest u
I have bharatiartl long 1 lot at 375.75 and Reliance 1020 call option,future at 1012
Can i exit in cost price?it panics me
Bharti - keep holding, if u can bear a loss of 10 rs. Sl is below 365 .
exit above 384
Reliance,exit
reliance call also exit
decision urs, as money is urs.
also, these both were not my recommendations at all
next time, u better ask me before taking a position, rather than panicking after taking a trade.
& if markets panic u, u r not made for markets.
sorry for harsh words, dear
Thank u sir.
Airtel intraday target?! or wait for F&O closing?
Thanks 4 free advice to all people who do not afford like me. I bought Vishal Retail 200 share @ 48.90 Will you pl give me guidance on Noida Toll Should I buy on what level
jatin
risk reward, both eqaul at this juncture
fox4stocks: to bring risk reward ratio to ur favour, buy only below 32.5, SL below 30, tgts not greater than 37. My preference is a buy below 32, close to 31.2-3
Sintex bought @ 381, SL below 378
Powergrid bought @ 110, Sl below 107
Operator ( jatin ) & others
Vishal retail broke 47 today & closed below that. This does not augur good for the stock, over all technically.
ALthough, v r investors, & investors dont need to bother day to day price movements.Also, i a m hopeful, v r gonna get good handsome returns, if we hold the stock for next 3 to 5 years. Even, then, if found it my duty to caution visitors.
That
Since, 47 could not support vishal retail, now, we shud all get ready to keep a scope for averaging the stock, deep down. I wud intimate as & when opportunity comes.
BUt, after breaking 47 today, it has wiped out my hope for a mega mega bullish chances. But, even then chances for my tgts 71 & 94 are still fair. But, over a very very long period of time.
Say, over 5 years.
Visitors & readers not comfortable for the above mentioned sceneario, please exit on a next better opportunity. Since, i believe, we wud still get a chance to close the trade < 48.7-49.2.
Rest, this remains, a personal individual decision now, that one remain invested for a 50 % return over next 5 years ( equivalent to bank rate interest ) or make an exit for cost to cost or nominal loss.
i will keep updating about the same.
ALTHOUGH, ALL THIS DISCUSSION VOID, IF IT DOESNT BREAK ITS LOW MADE TODAY.
Still I am holding Vishal Retail coz its not close @46.80. If close blw 46.80 I will exit. Is it ok
vishal retail closed above 46.8. Hope still alive.
Hope alive untill yest. low doesnt get broken
otherwise, its not gonna disappoint in a longer term perspective, for which it was bought.
as explained, breaking 47, it has ruined my hopes, of mega mega returns, but it wont be disappointing enough to not to beat even bank f.d. returns.
rest, ur decision
check up tisco for a sell :)
intra looks weak.. positional.. with a sl of 665 would also make sense.. if nifty breaks down :)
Arpit
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