Monthly Performance Report Card - July 2010 !

Hello friends,

SP. BELATED MENTION - Fresh Reco's r given thru comments, till new post generated

Time for results now, after all the hard work we had, let us see how good or bad our performance was.

Since, my blogging started mid june, i am including my june reco's also in my july report card, but then july onwards my report card would consist reco's month by month only. My blogging journey has been very short till now & hence had countable no. of trades. so, wud like to discuss my reco's on individual basis. This wud also let us take some invaluable inferences out of our trades.

Please find my july performance report card as a continuation of the following link:

http://stock2gains.blogspot.com/2010/06/trade-summary-functioning-of-volume.html

1. UTV SOFT - successful, 5-6 % return within 5 trading days.

Inference - Our first ever trade gives us most valuable lesson. Even if u have done ur homework properly, more important characterstics u need to practice urslf is PATIENCE.

http://stock2gains.blogspot.com/2010/06/shri-satguru-sainath-maharaj-ki-jai.html

Our trailing sl was hit only by 3 rs. but then whatever happened is a history. Within 20 trading days of our reco. UTV soft gave superlative return of 20%. proves all our reasons were perfect to initiate the trade.

2. Dhan Bank - Trade not initiated.

Inference - This is the most important characterstics of a VPT. VPT awaits for a trade, after identifying the entry & exit point in a trade, till risk reward ratio comes into its favour. Since, same did not happen in dhan bank, we did not initiate a trade.

3. Mcdowells - Cut cost to cost.

Inference - a VPT never carries forward a trade, if trade @ eod ends 1 % or closer to the SL identified so as to erase any possibility of SL hit due to a Gap up/down.

4. Tech Mahindra - Cut cost to cost.

Inference - Again an impulsive trade initiated, against the rules of a VPT, having not awaited for risk reward ratio into the favour.

5. Indian Hotels - Success, 4 % gain intraday.

Inference - a VPT never trades for intraday gains. But happy to place a order @ 4 % of his buy/sell price, to welcome the gains, if occur, by chance intraday, else he is quite happy to take a positional bet.

6. PFC - Failure, SL hit.

7. Federal bank - Failure,Sl hit.

Inferences - These both were calculated risks. since, we had established our entry & exit lvls & unfortunately our SL hit. But, count them as successful reco's, since, these were not impulsive trades, as proper levels were awaited to enter the trades ( although these both goes into my report card as failure trades )

8. BEL - 1695 to 1785, 4.5 % gains.

Inference - Most convincing trade, as @ 1860, we knew, we will get an opportunity to buy BEL < 1700 & same happens.

9. Grasim - Failure, SL hit.

10. Aban - Successful, superlative 7-8 % return, that too within 1 week.

Inference - Even then a agressive VPT in aban awaited 4-5 more days than a conservative VPT, he stopped out @ same price as to what conservative had. Clearly indicates, a conservative VPT is always in merit to a agressive VPT.

11. Grasim - Cut cost to cost.

Inference - Again, an impulsive trade. I hope, this proves to my last impulsive trade, as u r supposed to get more & more disciplined as u get matured as a trader.

12. Vishal retail - Successful, 4 % return thrice.

Inference - Although my targets mentioned have not met yet ( trade is still on as an investment bet, sl also not hit ), it is termed as a successful trade in my report card, since, thrice it provided an opportunity to reduce our average buying cost based on our 4 % rule ranging between 51 to 56.

13. HDIL - Failure, SL hit.

14. Century Tex. - successful, 4 % return within 2 days.

Inference - amongst my topmost convincing trade. Since, the time it was trading @ 466, i concluded, it must come down to 458-457. It did, respected our SL & hit 4 % target.

15. Tulip IT - Success, 7 % return intraday, 10 % positional.

Inference - This was my first SAR, & a successful SAR. SL & SAR level was mentioned as 168 for a long trade @ 171, it kissed 169.5 & zoomed to 182 within 1 hour. asked to buy double above 182, with SL placed @ 176 for a TGT 189, also achieved next day.

16. GVKPIL - Successful, 4 % gains, within 1 week.

Inference - My first trade, that showed me the merit of a agressive VPT over a conservative VPT. didnt dip enough to provide an opportunity to conservative to buy & hit out tgt, after only agressive had bought.

17. Rel capital - successful, 2.5 % tgt achieved.

Inference - Same as GVKPIL. didnt give an opportunity to conservative to buy. 2 nd sigh of relief for agressive VPT.

18. PFC - successful, 7 % gains within a day.

19. Rajesh exports - successful, 5 % gains within 2 days.

20. Neyvelli lignite - Failure, SL hit.

21. DCB - successful, 6-7 % gains, within 5 days.

22. PTC - successful, 5 % intraday gains, 10 % positional gains.

23. Sterling Biotech - Successful, 4 % gained twice.

24. TCS - Failure, Sl hit by 1 %

25. Biocon - Failure, Sl hit again by 1 %.

Inferences - TCS & biocon. Please go through detail inferences i posted, as follows

http://stock2gains.blogspot.com/2010/07/well-this-is-how-failure-is.html

26. Mcdowells - Success, 5 % CONFIDENT intraday gains.

Inference - Trade clicked into my mind while i was in process to update my latest post. SOMETHING VERY SPECIAL, my 1 st short sell success.

27. GVKPIL - Conservative trade still on.

28. Vishal retail - Investmet bet still on .

29. Sterling biotech - trading as well as investment bet continues.

30. Orient papers - 50 % quantity bought, for buying the rest, its on our radar.

31. Biocon - Agressive buy initiated. Conservative yet to buy.

Something special 2mention :

1. IFCI - Successful, 6 % return within 2 weeks time frame.

2. WWIL - Failure, Sl hit.

3. OFSS - Failure, Sl hit.

Inferences - we have got some important lesson to be learnt from these three trades. V did not follow the discipline, VPT sets, while trading these 3 scrips. VPT after identifying a B/O awaits the scrips to settle/dip to enter for a trade, which we did not do in above 3 scrips. So, there is nothing like BTST for a VPT. )

reference - { rule no. 3 } http://stock2gains.blogspot.com/2010/06/trade-summary-functioning-of-volume.html

&

http://stock2gains.blogspot.com/2010/06/btst-trades.html

Well, SUMMARY of my performance report card :

1. Total trades - 31.

2. Buy recos - 25

3. Successful - 15 + 3 ongoing + 2 investment bets + 2 cut cost to cost.

4. Failure - 3.

5. 4 % successes - 17 + 1 ( rel capital 2.5 % )

6. < 4 % - 5 ( 5 % profit not include )

7. Short recos - 5

8. Successful - 1 ( although, SL hit only by less than 1 % in rest of the 3 )

9. Intraday gains - 3. ( its not surprising, that s why i dont favour intraday )

10. Investment bets - 2.

11. Agressive excels - 3 only.

12. Conservative excels - all of them ( in terms of profit compared to agressives ).

Important inferences drawn on blog author on the basis of monthly performance report as follows :

A. - Comfortable in Buy reco's.

B. - Not trustworthy for Short reco's ( wud try & improve my record for the same )

C. - Can not be looked forward for intraday calls.

D. - Believes in stock specific moves only, restrains from views on indices.

E. - His trades are worth following for a 4 % rule ( gains ).

F. - Keeps other scrips on radar only until he has existing positions in 4-5 scrips.

G. - Instead, expecting his reco's 2cross 7-8%gains, better exit & await next reco's.

H. - very few investment bets offered ( wud try & improve myself on this front also )

I. - Following him as a conservative VPT is far better than being agressive VPT.

I hope, my monthly performance report & inferences have been able to match up with my readers' expectations to make them understand about my trading style properly & to know that what i am good at & what i am not. so that, my readers exactly know, why, how & what for, my reco's are to be followed.

Since, like every weekend, here is presenting before u a Sai Chamatkar.

http://www.4shared.com/photo/lrMYoqU-/HIRAN_1.html


Happy Sailing.

OM SAI RAM

Trade updates !

Hello friends !

Om Sai Ram.

Lets talk about the trades v have on our hand.

Sterling Biotech - Beautifully, provided us an opportunity to reduce our bearing cost, by our 4 % rule, ranging between 105.5 to 110.6 ( Isnt our 4 % rule working wonderfully ). Now, v have a luxury of all the worlds to hold the trade with a trading SL of 105.

Orient papers - Time 2 buy 30 % quantity now ( 20 % quantity being bought @ 53.6 ), close to 52. Rest 50 % to be bought only if v get levels below 50.

Had requested u all to keep an eye on MRPL, OFSS, BIOCON & HCC. arent them all providing us an opportunity to buy. That also shows my confidence that we would get a better buying opportunity in all above stocks, while posting.

MRPL- anything below 72 is a buy, keep a SL of 69. TGT 1.- 78.5 . Tgt 2.- 84.

OFSS - Buy between 2040-2055, SL 1985. TGTS in the range of 2240-2270.

HCC - Buy between 124-122. Tgt.1-131, Tgt 2.-134. Super lative tgt > 155, medium term. SL 117.

BIOCON - B4 giving levels 4 biocon, wud remind u of my views expressed under the link ( http://stock2gains.blogspot.com/2010/07/well-this-is-how-failure-is.html ) & check my tgt levels for shorting. All perfectly met, as planned. Unfortunate to have the Sl hit by a percent only.

Now, as stated, biocon is a buy now. Buy between 309-312 for agressives & below 308 for conservatives. Sl 298. Tgt 1 322, tgt 2 329. medium term tgts 360 +

MCDOWELLS - By the time, i am posting this, i am quite uncomfortable with the rise, mcdowells had , in last couple of weeks. + all the qualities there, what biocon had, while we decided to had a short call on biocon. So, try a luck to short MCDOWELLS ( CAUTION : all my previous short calls have been a failure ) @ 1450-1465, keep a SL of 1479. Tgt 1- 1390 , tgt 2.- 1378.

Now, views for all above 4 scrips are broader views. As soon as i see volume build up into them, i would generate my immediate buy calls. Agressive can go ahead with the above levels as & when they come.

I hope, my readers looking positive to wait for my monthly performance report card.

Happy Sailing

Trade updates + Sai Bhajan !

Trade updates

Sterling biotech - everything happening. Volume increased, resistance band of 107.5-108.5 conquered, Sl 105 guarded.

GVKPIL - Buy initiated.

Vishal retail - 51-53 band wud prove now a stiff resistance.

Orient paper - 1/5 th quantity bought, waiting for a dip to buy the rest.

Keep these scrips on the radar now

MRPL, Biocon, HCC, & OFSS.

would come up soon with the details as soon as the opportunity knocks in.

Please find the Sai bhajan in the following link & enjoy your Sai Vaar.

http://www.4shared.com/audio/4Fq0_J36/Adbhut_hai_tera_naam_sai.html

Happy sailing.

Om Sai Ram.


P.S. - Watch out this space for my MONTHLY PERFORMANCE REPORT, this weekend.

Guru Purnima Special + Sai Chamatkar II

I hope my friends were able to see GOU MATA ( Mother Cow ) into this :

http://www.4shared.com/photo/1PUWkCH9/GO_MATA.html

Now here is a Guru Purnima Special 4all of u

http://www.4shared.com/audio/pTvQ5uFj/Guru_Meri_Puja_.html

http://www.4shared.com/audio/_yXjaphR/Bolo_Jai_Sai_Ki_.html



TRADE UPDATES :

PTC - just missed our 2 nd tgt by a marginal 1 % only. Agressive finally stopped out, booking out their profit @ 112. Very difficult untill a scrip shows rocket type movement, that a agressive earns more profit than the conservatives.

Rel Capital - Finally seems providing conservative an opportunity to buy in the range of 792-795. Agressives already booked out. But an avoidable trade, since REL CAP is massively lagging the indices since election leads ( 15 the May, 2009 ) . Every time indices makes a higher top, rel cap makes a lower top to its previous highs.

ONGOING TRADES :

Vishal retail : Investement bet, 3 times gave us opportunity to reduce our average bearing price , ranging between 51 to 56.

Sterling biotech : Again an investment bet, traders' stop loss 105 ( closing ) still safe guarded.

ON RADAR :

GVKPIL - Had asked conservative 2buy @ 44.2-44.6, which it did not provide an opportunity to. Now, seemingly coming in2 dat range again. Keep it on ur buying radar. Keep a SL of 42.5.

Orient paper - 1st 20 % quantity bought, 2nd lot to be bought close to 52 & then every 2 % dip. So, keepit on buying radar.

Happy Sailing !

Gurur brahma Gurur vishnu, Gurur devo maheshwara. Gurur Sakshat parabrahma, Tasmei Shri Guruve Namah.

P.S. - This song is very soothing, melodious, sweet & not2b missed songs. VK bhai & all other Sai devotees, Grab them. Dont miss them.

WELL ! This is how failure is

Hello friends !

Sl hit in TCS & Biocon. Both were short sell calls & they both went down after hitting our stop loss by marginal > 1 % difference ( tcs : it wasnt even quarter % of a difference ) but failure is a failure. Unlike our academic record, in trading, it doesnt give us second chance, once our sl is gone. No re totalling, no re valuation, no supplementary, no second chance, simple failure. So, in trading u got to be pin point accurate.

But, although these two trades would be counted in my report card ( which gonna appear on my blog this month end & every month end ) as a failure, BUT & big BUT, i beg to claim my bets were in right direction. Let me clarify how.

The theory behind these bets to be played, proved right. As i mentioned, volumes were quite high in both of them + these both were trading close to their life time highs. That s why i termed them as a contrarion bets ( these symptoms in a scrip demand a long trade ) . But, my bet was that,before making new life time high, they both should cool off a bit, provide short sellers an opportunity to short, appear to be falling down & then taking their sl's should march fast, thick & quick to their resp. new life highs. Look at them now. They are still doing the same, pulling back quick & fast, but unfortunately after taking our SL. Now, I am expecting them to cool off a bit, consolidate in order to absorb all short sells & then a spring bounce back would come in both these stocks, hitting all short sellers' SL's. On appropriate times, i would be posting a buy calls in both of them as soon as the opportunity clicks 2me.

Till then HAPPY SAILING.

OM SAI RAM

P.S. - This weekend its time for a SAI CHAMATKAR photograph again. Watch out this space.

TCS & BIOCON - CONTRARION BETS !

Hello friends

OM SAI RAM

Here are two contrarion bets for u.

First of all , let me clarify both these bets are Shorting bets. First i was hesitating to post these both shorts, as out of my 6 failures so far 2 have been shorting bets. But then i thought, i created this blog to post, what i see. Both these stocks are close to their life time high & attracting heavy volumes also, hence, these are termed as contrarion bets. u got to keep strict strict sl, if u r playing these.

TCS - Shorts can be created for anything > 840, 848 being sl & targets not more than 5 % from this levels.

Biocon - This is riskier amongst the two. Short @ CMP, keep a SL of 331. i expect at least 321 & 316.

Both these stocks are gonna spring back to break their current life highs , but i am expecting them to cool off a bit before doing that, hence taking a contrarion risk.

Happy Sailing

P.S. - BIOCON hitting 331.4 while i am posting this. I am still hopeful, keep 332.05 as SL & play this high risk. all the best.